Empire State Manufacturing Index Falls 14 Points to 5.7 in June
The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Survey released on Monday, June 15, 2026 showed the headline general business conditions index falling fourteen points to a reading of 5.7, the New York Fed reported in its monthly release. The index remained in positive territory but missed the consensus forecast of 13.9 in the Zacks survey of analysts.
Survey responses were collected between June 2 and June 9, 2026 across the New York State manufacturing-employer base that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's regular monthly diffusion-index survey covers. The June reading captures the manufacturing-conditions snapshot heading into the Fed's two-day June 16-17 policy meeting.
New orders and shipments both moved higher inside the June report, with unfilled orders also rising across the sample, signaling that activity continues to expand modestly despite the headline-index drop. Delivery times continued to lengthen and supply availability continued to worsen, the two leading supply-side indicators inside the survey.
The fourteen-point drop in the headline index from the May reading represents the steepest single-month decline since the early-2025 sample-window cycle, with the post-spring index trajectory pointing back toward the lower end of the post-pandemic operating range. The composite reading still sits above the zero contraction-or-expansion boundary, placing the New York manufacturing base inside a slow-growth rather than contraction frame.
The new orders sub-index moving higher across the June sample provides the structural counter-signal inside the report, with the demand-side pickup pointing toward a possible second-half rebound in the headline reading if the order-flow trajectory holds. Shipments-up plus unfilled-orders-up is the standard early-cycle expansion-signal pattern that the survey's diffusion-index methodology tracks.
The delivery-times and supply-availability deterioration inside the June report continues the supply-chain-pressure pattern that has carried across the post-Iran-deal United States manufacturing space. The combination of higher demand and tighter supply on the same data release places the broader inflation-pressure conversation at the head of the post-release commentary cycle.
The release lands two days before the Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The 5.7 reading sits inside the broader incoming-data window that has been informing the Federal Open Market Committee positioning toward a likely hold at the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range.
On the broader macroeconomic-data calendar side, the Empire State release runs ahead of the Wednesday housing-starts revision, the Thursday Philly Fed manufacturing release, and the Friday consumer-sentiment update from the University of Michigan. The combination of those four data releases inside the same week provides the dominant incoming-data window the FOMC dot plot will reflect.
The 13.9 consensus forecast the actual 5.7 reading missed was built around the post-tariff supply-chain rebalancing trajectory that economists had been pricing into their May-to-June incremental forecasts. The miss reframes the analyst-consensus calculation inside the upcoming-data-revision cycle that runs through the rest of June.
The combination of weaker headline reading and stronger order-flow component is a familiar mid-cycle reading the post-2022 manufacturing diffusion-index sequence has produced. The internal-component mix inside the June report places the New York manufacturing base inside the broader mid-cycle slow-growth trajectory rather than the contraction frame the headline-only reading would suggest.
What sits ahead is the Wednesday Federal Reserve rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections, the parallel data releases from the Philadelphia Fed Thursday and the University of Michigan Friday, and the broader question of whether the New York reading represents a one-month volatility marker or a structural shift in the manufacturing-conditions trajectory. The Federal Open Market Committee positioning into the Wednesday decision will be the most-watched downstream marker of the post-release week.
